Author: Brett Fujioka
With recent polls placing Sen. Barack Obama ahead of Sen. John McCain by double digits in the 2008 presidential race, both supporters and political commentators are already anticipating a victory for the Democratic Party. In spite of this, I question the legitimacy of these polls based on the sample’s honesty. If there’s one thing that opinion polls fail to consider, it’s how race factors into this election.
Nobody likes to admit that they’re racist, and most will go through any means to prove otherwise. This includes lying in an opinion, stating that you’re in favor of a presidential candidate because of his skin color to assure others that you aren’t a bigot. However, in private, you’ll go against your word and vote in favor of a different candidate come Election Day. Political scientists have coined this term the “Bradley Effect” to explain the discrepancy between opinion polls and election results.
Thomas Bradley, the originator of this term, was Los Angeles’ first and only African-American mayor to date. He served five consecutive terms before turning his ambitions toward California’s gubernatorial office. Like Sen. Obama, Bradley was charismatic and a media darling. Public opinion polls propitiously speculated that he would win the election. To the contrary, he lost by 100,000 votes, which took even his opponent, George Deukmejian, by surprise.
One of the reasons why this political term resonates so closely with me is because I met Bradley when I was little. He pledged to appoint one of my relatives to a position once he won his election. Unfortunately I wasn’t old enough to remember this, otherwise I would have appreciated meeting someone who contributed greatly to black history a lot more. But it’s because of this that the Bradley Effect lingered on my mind well before CNN published an article about it on its news Web site.
However, there are some major differences between Thomas Bradley and Sen. Obama. Like Obama, Bradley had a difficult time appealing to both black voters and white voters. One contributor to Bradley’s defeat was because black leaders discouraged members of their community to go out and vote in ire of Bradley’s dedicated attention to white voters.
Unlike in Bradley’s situation, though, most polls suggest that a great majority of black voters are both excited about this upcoming election and favorable toward Obama. There are even articles circulating that a great amount of black conservatives are unable to decide between party loyalty and contributing to African-American history. Obama has succeeded where Bradley failed by convincing black voters that he does indeed care.
Obama also succeeded in reconciling America’s racial demographic and has, for the most part, appealed to both white and black voters. As someone born of a white mother and a Kenyan father, Obama is able to appeal to both sides of the fence without denying the other. He managed to placate racial tensions arising from the “Reverend Wright Controversy” through his “A More Perfect Union” speech in March of 2008.
I also believe that the polls in California were dishonest due to their cultural inclination toward political correctness. People in California are willing to lie as long as it avoids offending anyone. The media has interviewed people from around the country who are more up-front with their bigotry. Americans have accused Obama of being an Arab, Muslim and Jew, only to stop short of dropping the “N-bomb.” Other states are more willing to admit to racism and some are even proud of it.
If the Bradley Effect does prove to be a factor in this election, then it will come about in a previously unforeseen way. It’s been 15 years since Thomas Bradley ran for office and already the times have changed. If somebody said back in 2000 that a black politician had the chance of not only winning the Democratic primary, but also the election, a majority of people would have found it inconceivable (even though Robert Kennedy predicted that an African-American could run for office in less than fifty years during a speech in 1968.)
With this in mind, supporters should still heed Obama’s warning to “not get cocky.” Even though the Bradley Effect is unforeseeable, it still remains a factor. It’s just a matter of how substantial this factor is.
Brett Fujioka is a senior ECLS major. He can be reached at bfujioka@oxy.edu.
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