Author: Dean DeChiaro
Attention will be turned to Sacramento next November when California voters elect the state’s 39th governor.
While the race is still in it’s early stages, already there is speculation about who the governor will be, and what party he or she will be affiliated with. Because of California’s term limit laws, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is prohibited from running again.
Many think that this gubernatorial race will be unlike others before it, given the state’s transformation since Schwarzenegger took office in 2003.
“The budget crisis and national economic meltdown have fundamentally altered California politics,” Politics Professor Regina Freer said.
“There is dissatisfaction with the Governor, the legislature and the general way the state is run,” said Charles Bennett (junior), a student in Professor Freer’s L.A. Politics class.
“One of the things you have to remember is that California has a lot of liberals, but still has a lot of conservatives,” Bennett said.
The California election system functions similarly to the national system, meaning that Republicans and Democrats will hold primaries in June to decide party nominees.
The leading Republicans in the polls are former businesswoman and McCain/Palin spokeswoman Meg Whitman, and the California Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner.
For the Democrats, the popular candidates are former governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown, and Gavin Newsom, the young mayor of San Francisco.
Although she has not officially joined the race yet, political pundits have also widely speculated that Senator Dianne Feinstein may join the race. According to her communication director Gil Duran she has yet to decide whether or not to run.
“The job I do now I think is important, and what I really want to do is make a difference,” she said in a 2008 interview with the San Francisco Chronicle. “The question is, how can I best do that? Is it using the seniority I have in the Senate, or is it in getting out there and running for governor?”
The characteristics of next year’s election depend heavily on which candidates receive their respective party’s nomination. For the Democrats, Brown and Newsom have different platforms.
“Jerry Brown will have to run against his connection to Sacramento when folks believe the place is dysfunctional and Gavin Newsom will have to combat charges that his San Francisco pedigree is too far left,” said Freer. Some expect experience to be an issue in the primary.
“[Newsom] is young enough to be Jerry Brown’s kid. Newsom has less statewide cache than Brown, as Brown has held statewide elected office for 20 years non-consecutively,” said Bennett.
In the Republican primary, Whitman and Poizner are both business figures, but Whitman has operated primarily in the private sector, working as CEO of eBay for a decade.
“She can claim the ‘outsider’ label and she obviously has a head for business,” said Freer.
The Brown-Newsom showdown is the most followed of the race thus far, but if Feinstein officially joins the race, more attention would be turn to her.
“If Dianne Feinstein decides to run, she will likely win the nomination and probably the election,” said Bennett. If not, Bennett believes that Jerry Brown would appeal to older, more established voters, while Newsom would appeal to young people.
“[The Newsom campaign] has basically emailed every young Democrat in the state because [he] believes that the young people are his key constituency,” said Bennett. However, Newsom received a boost when former President Bill Clinton endorsed him.
Regardless of who the nominees are, however, the race may prove to be a microcosm of a national election (in terms of a constituency split down the middle), given California’s current polarized political state.
“You have to remember the Republican model. They seem to believe that they lost the nation in 2006 because they weren’t conservative enough,” said Bennett. “[In California specifically], when you look at the raw numbers, comparing 2004 and 2008, you see that the Democrats made gains, but that doesn’t translate to gains in 2010.” November 2010 will also be the month of several key elections for seats in the state legislature, which could also sway the direction of politics in California, as well as a Senate race. Barbara Boxer, the incumbent seeking her fourth term, will be running against Republican challengers.
President Barack Obama could play a major role in all three elections if he decides to campaign in the state. “If [Obama] campaigns for [the Democratic nominee for Governor] and Boxer, then the Republicans could be in trouble, because Obama is more popular in California than any Democrat on the state level,” said Bennett.
For more information, go to the California State Governor’s website at http://gov.ca.gov/.
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