Author: Morgan Flake
It’s a question that’s been lurking in the minds of people on campus and around the world of every political persuasion: Can Obama win?
On Tuesday, Sept. 30 Professor of Political Science at University of California at San Diego Gary Jacobson gave an answer to that question in his talk “Can Oxy’s Obama Win?” About 50 students attended the lecture in Morrison Lounge, including the “Elections and Campaigns” class taught by Professor Caroline Heldman and the “Topics of Contemporary American Foreign Policy” class taught by Ambassador Derek Shearer.
“Professor Jacobson is one of the leading political scientists in the United States, and it was a privilege to have him at Oxy,” Shearer said.
Jacobson has written numerous books on congressional elections, but has turned his attention to the race for president at this time of anticipation and turmoil.
Jacobson outlined the advantages for Senator Barack Obama’s campaign: the record disapproval ratings of President George Bush and the potentially revolutionary youth vote. About 27 percent of Americans currently approve of Bush — the second lowest rating of any president in history. Jacobson said that this is largely due to the Iraq War, which has been more highly divisive along party lines than any other American conflict. Consequently, more Americans are supporting the Democratic Party.
“People who came of age during the Bush Administration are the most democratic age cohort of any generation,” Jacobson said.
This leads to what Jacobson thinks is Obama’s most powerful asset: the youth of America. Obama is the first presidential candidate to incorporate college students into his campaign, as evidenced by the Occidental College Chapter of Students for Barack Obama, a.k.a. Oxy for Obama. Voter turnout among youth is ordinarily the lowest of any age group, but the turnout in the primaries was surprisingly high. According to Jacobson, if Obama can draw out as many of the liberal-leaning youth population as he hopes, it seems probable that he could win the election, according to Jacobson.
“There ought to be no way that the democrats don’t clean up across the board,” Jacobson said.
Yet aside from that possible boost, Obama does have quite a few obstacles ahead of him, Jacobson reminded us. He said that Republicans have an advantage because they are more spread out across the country, whereas democrats tend to concentrate in large cities. He also said that Senator John McCain poses a threat as the best candidate the Republican Party could have chosen for this race.
“The Republicans backed into choosing the only Republican candidate with any chance to win this year after the alternatives were vetted,” Jacobson said.
Additionally, Jacobson reminded us that the Democratic Party is currently much divided because so many fervent supporters of Senator Hilary Clinton still haven’t devoted their support to Obama. He suggested that Obama could heal the party divisions, but only with Clinton’s help.
And finally, Jacobson said that Obama will face the loss of votes due to what he calls “residual racism.” He estimates that about five to six percent of people will not vote for Obama simply because of his race. And while there may be some increase in black voter turnout, Jacobson said that Obama’s race does not much serve to help him in the election because black voters have historically tended to vote for the democratic candidate.
Jacobson discussed how a few rather predictable strategies that have dominated the campaign. For example, any republican candidate was destined to be framed by the Democratic campaign as the next George Bush. The job of the Republican candidate would be to avoid this tag. In Jacobson’s opinion, McCain has been reasonably successful at doing so. He pointed out that the Arizona Senator was the candidate in the Republican primaries least identified as a party loyalist. But despite McCain’s efforts to shake off any connection between himself and Bush, Obama’s campaign is only too happy to remind voters that McCain’s healthcare, foreign affairs, and economic policies are essentially the same as those of Bush, said Jacobson.
At the time of his lecture, Jacobson said that Obama was currently ahead in the polls, but that changes are still ahead.
“Things are fairly volatile. There are moveable voters out there,” Jacobson said.
He said that the proportion of undecided voters hovers around 10-20 percent, but many of these people do not even vote. Most decisions have already been made.
Jacobson also discussed the Vice Presidential picks. “This year the Vice Presidential candidates do matter. Palin is a big part of McCain’s campaign,” Jacobson said.
Jacobson explained that McCain’s selection for Vice President, Governor Sarah Palin, has been a factor in his popularity, which saw a small surge after her selection at the Republican National Convention. Jacobson said that Palin has helped McCain win over social conservatives who previously mistrusted him, and has also incited what Jacobson calls a “culture war” over such social issues as abortion.
In this close Presidential race, the biggest factors, according to Jacobson, are the culture war, Obama’s limited experience as a first-term senator, and Obama’s race. According to Jacobson, it will be essential to Obama’s victory that the youth get to the polls to vote.
“Professor Jacobson made great use of polling data to support his claim that an Obama win is likely this November,” Heldman said.
Students responded to the presentation with enthusiasm and questions. “This made me feel a little more optimistic about the election,” Kamini Kuchinad (freshman) said.
So can Oxy’s Obama win? Jacobson made it clear that Obama certainly can win, but only on Nov. 4 will we be able to answer that question.
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