For the first time in months, many at Occidental are feeling optimistic about the Presidential election. Gone is the old man who couldn’t form a sentence against Donald Trump. In his place is Vice President Kamala Harris, making a 34-time convicted felon sweat like only a District Attorney can. Optimism in Harris’s potential victory is appealing, but it cannot become blind faith. As someone who has lived in one of the most conservative states in the nation for over 17 and a half years, I witnessed Trump’s rise and the institutionalization of MAGA in a way that few others at Occidental have. And I believe it when I say that Donald Trump is stronger than he has ever been.
Despite Harris’s recent gains, Trump still has a completely viable path to victory. As of the latest data, Harris is leading in the majority of swing states but only by razor-thin margins. According to 270ToWin’s latest polling averages, Trump is currently ahead in Arizona and Georgia, and Harris is leading in North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania by 0.2%, 0.4% and 0.8% respectively. A 1% error in Trump’s favor would ensure his victory. Trump still has a month and a half to recover from any damage the debate did to him, which is an eternity in this election cycle.
Harris’s big problem is doubtlessly the state of the economy. According to the Pew Research Center, 81% of registered voters believe the economy is the most important issue and 10% more of registered voters favor Trump’s handling of it over Harris’s. Why is this? All of the traditional measures of economic well-being are very positive. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment for the month of August sat comfortably at 4.2%, and more importantly, inflation has dropped to 2.5% – the lowest rate since Feb. 2021.
In the perceptions of the American people, this data is about as good as Nero’s fiddling while Rome burned. Prices haven’t gone down; they are just rising at pre-COVID rates again. Most items are still more expensive than they used to be, and people are understandably upset.
Try telling my mother – or really, any person on the street – that we aren’t in a recession. They will laugh you off. Only 23% of Americans believe the economy is well-off or good now, whereas over 50% could say the same in 2019. People are hurting, and they don’t believe Harris has a remedy. It feels to many like the economy has been in perpetual chaos since 2020. No wonder they would turn to Trump, the last president the economy felt fine under, to fix it.
For that matter, Trump’s entire brand has been that of a strongman in the face of chaos. Trump’s behavior is chaotic, but predictably so. To change his volatility into a strength, he has defined the world in “us vs. them” terms: disarray vs order, inflation vs prosperity, peace vs war and (white, conservative, Christian) America vs everyone else.
To Trump’s credit, Joe Biden has had multiple foreign policy fiascos. Let us not forget how Afghanistan fell to the Taliban before the American withdrawal was complete and how Russia invaded Ukraine despite international efforts to prevent it. Due to Trump’s exploitation of these failures and rhetoric on certain domestic issues, such as crime and immigration, he has made many believe that Biden — and by extension, Harris — are too weak to keep America safe. In fact, my grandma says that she’s voting for Trump because she “doesn’t want a president that will force me and my brother to fight in World War Three.” To many (including some in my own family), Trump’s chaos is his strength, as he is enough of a wild card to keep the rest of the world guessing.
Trump’s rhetoric is generally working, as Pew Research Center states that voters prefer Trump’s foreign and immigration policies over Harris’s by 6% and 7% respectively. Harris made significant inroads on this during the debate, but she must further convince the public that she is the competent candidate on these matters.
Hope on the part of Democrats is a good thing, but it mustn’t become complacency. After all, we all saw what happened in 2016. Hillary Clinton was projected to win with a whopping 324 Electoral Votes on Election Day in 2016. Instead, Trump won with 304 Electoral Votes, as many Democrats assumed Hillary Clinton’s victory was guaranteed and stayed home. In the public’s eyes, Trump still holds a decisive lead in many important areas. Harris can win, but it will not be easy. Donate if you want to, volunteer if it’s practical for you. But most importantly, vote like you have to. Because, for the sake of yourself, your community, your country and your world, you do.
Contact Taylor Hubbard at thubbard@oxy.edu
